Leveraging Demographic Intelligence for Development
The demographic transition in Odisha, marked by a rapid decline in fertility rate and an ageing population, underscores critical changes demanding attention.
Odisha’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped by 14%, falling from 2.1 in NFHS-4 (2015-16) to 1.8 in NFHS-5 (2019-21)—well below the replacement level. This sharp decline contributes to a projected 61% decrease in the population growth rate from 2011 to 2036. Despite fewer births, the elderly population is expected to surge from 0.39 crore in 2011 to an estimated 0.82 crore by 2036. With the median age projected to rise from 26 to 36 years (Population projection for India and States by the Technical Committee, ORGI, 2020), Odisha’s shifting age structure will challenge economic growth, healthcare, and social support systems.
